Rethinking Recession in Light of a Resilient Job Market

The possibility of a recession in the United States in 2023 has been a subject of significant speculation among economists, CEOs, investors, and the public. However, recent developments have led experts to reassess their predictions.

The resiliency of the job market has emerged as a crucial factor challenging the prevailing notion of an impending economic downturn. Let’s explore the evolving discourse surrounding the likelihood of a recession in 2023, examining the changing landscape of economic indicators, expert opinions, and public sentiment.

Initial Forecasts

In a survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) in March 2023, 58% of economists projected a year-long recession in the United States.

Several key concerns fueled this prevailing sentiment, one of the primary being the high level of inflation and the deliberate actions taken by the Federal Reserve to slow down the economy.

Inflation rates exceeded the Fed’s forecasts, with the PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—growing at a rate higher than anticipated. Total PCE inflation reached a 4.2% annual rate, while core PCE inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) was even higher at 4.9%. These figures surpassed the Fed’s forecast of 3.3% price growth for the year.

The strong inflationary pressures were closely tied to robust spending. This suggested an overheating economy driven by strong demand rather than just supply constraints. To counteract this, the Federal Reserve implemented rapid interest rate hikes to cool down the economy and curb inflation. The slowdown became apparent when the final reading on Q4 2022 real GDP growth showed a deceleration.

However, the data since then has raised doubts about the previously held consensus.

Factors to Consider

The unexpected uptick in hiring, with employers adding 339,000 jobs in May, has shattered the notion of an imminent recession. Job growth surpassed forecasts and even outperformed the previous highs recorded in 2019.

But is it an anomaly or a significant trend?

While the job market at large continues to thrive, some sectors—such as technology and media—have experienced job cuts. Furthermore, certain indicators like household surveys show a temporary increase in unemployment rates.

Additionally, in the medium term, consumers will likely continue facing financial difficulties due to persistent high inflation. Reports of reduced consumer demand and rising auto loan delinquencies indicate potential challenges on the horizon.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s measures to combat inflation may impact the economy with a lag, potentially exacerbating risks.

Shifting Sentiments

Economists have begun revising their predictions. They admit that the resiliency of the U.S. economy has defied expectations, forcing them to push back the projected start date of a recession.

Despite this, public sentiment remains cautious, influenced by perceptions rather than the objective economic indicators. This intriguing contrast has given rise to a term coined by Kyla Scanlon, a financial educator: the “vibecession.”

Rather than solely relying on quantitative data to gauge the state of the economy, people are increasingly turning to their gut feelings and lived experiences.

The phrase serves as a valuable starting point for gaining a deeper understanding of the current situation. Metrics like the unemployment rate and inflation are crucial, but they should not be the sole measures of economic health. We also need to consider whether people are earning enough to live and assess the quality of new jobs entering the market. Perhaps by expanding our scope, a more insightful picture of the economy emerges.

A Fluid Economic Landscape

The prevailing belief in a recession in 2023 has encountered significant challenges due to the job market’s robustness and the overall strength of the U.S. economy. While risks and potential turning points exist, the current data suggests a resilient economy with no immediate signs of a downturn.

As the landscape evolves, it is crucial to navigate the changing tides with caution, adaptive strategies, and an open mind to alternative possibilities.